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Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

By: Ray Dalio - Read: January 2024 - Rating: 8/10

Dalio's analysis of how empires rise and fall, applied to understanding the current US-China dynamic.

The big cycles framework: education and innovation lead to economic competitiveness, which leads to military power and reserve currency status. Then debt, internal conflict, and external challengers reverse the cycle.

The historical parallels between the Dutch, British, and American empires are illuminating. The data-driven approach to history is refreshing, even if some pattern-matching feels forced. Essential reading for thinking about geopolitics.